“Back-to-class shopping is one of the most important consumer shopping occasions of the year," says Matthew Shay, President and CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF).  "Our research for 2023 shows American consumers are eager to jumpstart their back-to-school and college purchases early."

Based on per capita spending estimates from the NRF, Boston area parents are expected to spend a record $664,652,072 to prepare more than 677,200 children returning to grades K-12. These expenditures will exceed 2022 back-to-school sales by 12.5%

Expenditures to equip K-12 students in the Boston area will be on:

• Clothing: $234.4 million
• Shoes: $192.2 million
• Supplies: $124.9 million
• Electronics: $104.1 million

In addition to expenditures for K-12,  $ 1.5 billion is expected to be spent in the Boston area to prepare college students for their return to campus. This is 27% more than was spent last year. Another record.

The biggest spending categories to equip Boston area college students in 2023 will include:

• Electronics: $371.6 million
• Dorm/Apartment Furniture: $209.8 million
• Clothing: $200.2 million
• Food Items: $166.5 million

In order to capture the largest portion of this record back-to-class cash, Boston small business owners will need to fight to keep these dollars local. According to the NRF, a painful majority of shoppers plan to buy online and in department stores.  While only 13-15% of consumers plan to buy locally.

Economic concerns among Boston area consumers are not expected to subdue holiday shopping in in 2022.  Based on forecasts from The National Retail Federation, local shoppers are projected to spend at least $14.9 billion this year. This would be 6% more than was spent in 2021.

“While consumers are feeling the pressure of inflation and higher prices, and while there is continued stratification with consumer spending and behavior among households at different income levels, consumers remain resilient and continue to engage in commerce,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “In the face of these challenges, many households will supplement spending with savings and credit to provide a cushion and result in a positive holiday season.”

The biggest challenge facing Boston business owners is keeping holiday spending local. NRF expects 10-12% of purchases to happen online from retailers like Amazon and Walmart.

To lay claim to this expanding pool of holiday spending,  and keep business local, small business owners will need advertising. By, most marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Boston radio.

Local consumers may have a gloomy feeling about economic conditions, but their spending has not tapered. This is good news for the 205,625 small business owners in the Boston area.

According to the latest University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers, sentiment about current economic conditions remains near the all-time low. Concerns about volatile gas prices, rampant inflation, and a looming recession have driven the survey's index down 37% versus a year ago.

Despite these dim consumer sentiments, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis's July report shows that real personal consumption expenditures are pacing well above pre-Covid levels. According to Morgan Stanley research, consumers' ability to spend is being driven, in part, by a massive amount of excess savings accumulated over the course of the pandemic.

Earlier this year, based on per capita spending data from the National Retail Federation (NRF). Boston consumers were forecast to spend nearly $80 billion at retail this year. The current level of spending suggests that shoppers are on track to hit that number.

Of course, for local business owners to successfully compete for a share of this record spending requires marketing. By most key marketing metrics, the best way to advertise is on Boston radio. This is especially true among business owners who must limit the number of marketing channels that can be used because of economic restraints.

Of all media, advertising on the radio provides the greatest return on investment.

Father's Day this year is on Sunday, June 19. Based on projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF), Boston shoppers are expected to spend $317.1 million on the dads in their life. This is on par with the record-breaking $318.6 million spent in 2021.

“Despite growing concerns about inflation, consumers plan to spend approximately the same amount as last year in celebration of Father’s Day,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Spending patterns also reflect the sentimental nature of the holiday as consumers are prioritizing unique and meaningful gifts.”

The NRF projects that nearly 60%, of all Father's Day purchases in Boston, will be for special outings, clothing, gift cards, and electronics. Although most category spending will be down slightly from last year, the amount of money spent on special outings such as dinner is expected to increase by over 8%.

.Here is how this large pool of Father's Day cash in Boston is expected to be distributed in all retail categories.

Each week according to Nielsen, 3.3 million consumers tune in to a Boston radio station. This is significantly more adults than watch local TV stations, cable, or streaming video. It is more than browse social media. It is more than listen to streaming audio services or podcasts. It is more than read local newspapers.

There are two traits Boston radio listeners have in common. First, they are very loyal to their favorites, tuning-in to, on average, only 2.7 different stations each week.

Second, and of particular importance to Boston small business owners, radio listeners are returning to 'normal' at a faster rate than the general population after more than two years of pandemic.

Since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, Nielsen has been measuring consumer sentiment in regard to normal behaviors. In a survey conducted in March of this year, 83% of adults say they are "ready to go and feel life is becoming more normal". This is up dramatically from the same time last year.

Attention Boston small business owners and retailers: nearly half of holiday shoppers are already spending money. According to the National Retail Federation, 49% of consumers will start their Christmas season shopping before Hallowe'en. 

Consumers plan to spend $997.73 on gifts, holiday items, and other non-gift purchases for themselves and their families this year, according to the annual survey released today by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics.

In all, based on forecasts from Deloitte, the world's largest accounting firm, Boston consumers are expected to spend between $20.3 and $20.6 billion during the holiday shopping period. This would be a 7-9% increase over 2020.

"We anticipate strong consumer spending for the upcoming holiday season. As vaccination rates rise and consumers are more comfortable being outside of the home, we are likely to see increased spending on services, including restaurants and travel, while spending on goods will continue to hold steady. A steady decline in the savings rate to pre-pandemic levels will support consumer spending and keep retail sales elevated this season," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's U.S. economic forecaster. "Further, e-commerce sales will continue to grow as consumers demonstrate an ongoing and steady movement toward buying online across all categories."

Boston retailers are noticing that the opening bell for holiday shopping has rung earlier than ever for local shoppers.

Boston consumers are on track to spend more than $72 billion at retail this year, based on projections by the National Retail Federation (NRF). Spending is expected to be 13.5% higher than last year.  

Some Boston small business owners, though, are wondering if the spread of the Delta Variant may slow spending if consumers sense pressure on their own financial security. Shoppers, however, don't see it that way.

New research from Nielsen indicates that 82% of consumers believe their household finances will either remain the same or improve during the upcoming months.

The Nielsen study has another finding that Boston business owners will find promising. Consumers are more likely to shop locally than they did before the onset of the pandemic, although in different ways.

In 2021, according to Nielsen, 295,602 Boston area homeowners are expected to spend $2.4 billion on kitchen and bathroom remodeling. This would be an increase of 16.8% increase over last year. Sales estimates are based on data from The National Kitchen & Bath Association (NKBA).

Because of the ongoing pandemic, 2.4 million homeowners from Foxborough to Newburyport are in the process of reassessing their living spaces.

According to the NKBA, homeowners cite the kitchen and bath areas as two times more important than other spaces within the home, and the kitchen particularly gained status throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with 70% of homeowners considering it extremely important compared to 64% before the crisis.

“After such a strong year for home remodeling in 2020, some wondered if we were approaching a home improvement spending ‘cliff.’ We’re pleased to say that’s not what the kitchen and bath market is expecting in 2021,” said Bill Darcy, NKBA CEO.

“Last year, homeowners started the work of improving their living spaces with DIY projects. And this year, with early distribution of the vaccine and other measures to reduce the public health impact of the virus, we expect to see continued renovations and more projects requiring our members.”

There is cheerful news for small business owners from Quincy to Newburyport and every city and town in between.

Based on the latest projections from the National Retail Federation, holiday sales are expected to grow 3.6%-5.2% over 2019.  This means despite the economic ravages of the pandemic, Boston area shoppers will be spending between $11.9 and $12.2 billion on gifts and other trappings of the season.

The NRF forecast is based on an economic model that takes into consideration a variety of indicators including employment, wages, consumer confidence, disposable income, consumer credit, previous retail sales and weather. NRF defines the holiday season as November 1 through December 31. Numbers forecast by NRF may differ from other organizations that define the holiday season as a longer period or include retail sectors not included by NRF, such as automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

"Consumers have shown they are excited about the holidays and are willing to spend on gifts that lift the spirits of family and friends after such a challenging year," says NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. "We expect a strong finish to the holiday season." 

“Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago."

There is positive news for the 205,000 small businesses in the Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH Metro area.  A majority of consumers say they are ready to start shopping again.

A lifestyle survey just released from Nielsen indicates 53% of Americans believe that despite the continuing pandemic, life is beginning to normalize, and they are likely to resume typical activities.  Nielsen refers to this majority as "Ready-To-Go".

According to the survey, Ready-To-Go consumers now perceive less risk, feel safer, and believe their cities are emerging from crisis.

The key takeaway for Boston small business owners is that Ready-To-Go consumers are significantly more likely to start shopping within 30 days than the total population.  These buyers, according to Nielsen, are looking to spend on home improvement, professional services, auto parts/repair, shopping, food & dining, and travel.

To capture a meaningful share of the money Ready-To-Go consumers will be spending requires local small business owners to advertise.  By almost every metric, advertising on Boston radio is the best advertising option.